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EVENT

Historian vs. Futurist on Human Progress


Dates:
Mon Apr 28, 2008 00:00 - Thu Mar 27, 2008

The Long Now Foundation's monthly series Seminars About Long-term Thinking
http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/

Niall Ferguson and Peter Schwartz debate
Historian vs. Futurist on Human Progress

Seminar hosted by Stewart Brand

Distinguished historian Ferguson and renowned futurist Schwartz disagree profoundly on the nature of human progress. Both use scenarios (called "counterfactual history" by Ferguson) to analyze how events play out. Ferguson wrote THE WAR OF THE WORLD (2006), a history of the violence that defined the 20th Century. Schwartz wrote THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW (1991), the standard text on scenario planning, and THE LONG BOOM (1999), on global prosperity in the 21st century. Both speakers regard history as highly contingent. The question is, contingent on what?

Monday, April 28th, 02008

Doors open 7:00pm, talk at 7:30pm lasting ~1.5 hours
Located at The Cowell Theater at Fort Mason Center
http://www.fortmason.org/directions/index.shtml

$10 suggested donation

We recommend you arrive early; priority seating is available for Members of Long Now.
https://secure.longnow.org/members/

There will be a reception at the Long Now Museum & Store following the Seminar.
http://www.longnow.org/contact/

For more information contact:
Danielle Engelman
Community Development Director
danielle@longnow.org
415.561.6582 x1

The Seminars About Long-term Thinking were started in 02003 to build a coherent, compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking, to help nudge civilization toward Long Now's goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.


EVENT

Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention with Craig Venter


Dates:
Mon Feb 25, 2008 00:00 - Mon Jan 28, 2008

Location:
United States of America

The Long Now Foundation presents Seminars About Long-term Thinking
Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention with Craig Venter

Few people in history have expanded the capabilities of science and technology as profoundly as J. Craig Venter. Life on Earth is about to be fundamentally altered by the creation of a totally synthetic organism, an artificial species genetically encoded from scratch by scientists working under Dr. Venter. Do not miss what he has to say about the implications of this watershed moment.

Location: Herbst Theater
401 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94102

Feb. 25th (MONDAY)
Doors open 7:00pm, talk at 7:30pm (duration ~1.5 hours)
$10 Suggested Donation

The purpose of the Seminars About Long-term Thinking series is to build a coherent, compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking, to help nudge civilization toward Long Now's goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.


EVENT

The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Dates:
Mon Feb 04, 2008 00:00 - Mon Jan 07, 2008

The Long Now Foundation presents Seminars About Long-term Thinking
The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's latest book focuses on the particularly extreme and unforeseen events he calls Black Swans. It details how we rationalize these events after the fact and focus on what we already know, instead of what we don't, making them seem less random. Our inability to conceive of randomness and how profoundly it affects history, he contends, is why the future has always been crazier than we thought.

"A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of... The Tipping Point."
-Time

Feb. 4 (MONDAY), 02008
Doors open 7:00pm, talk at 7:30pm (duration ~1.5 hours)

Location: Cowell Theater
Fort Mason Center
San Francisco, CA 94123

$10 Suggested Donation

The purpose of the Seminars About Long-term Thinking is to build a coherent, compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking, to help nudge civilization toward Long Now's goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.

www.longnow.org
415-561-6582