The Long Now Foundation's monthly series Seminars About Long-term Thinking
Niall Ferguson and Peter Schwartz debate
Historian vs. Futurist on Human Progress
Seminar hosted by Stewart Brand
Distinguished historian Ferguson and renowned futurist Schwartz disagree profoundly on the nature of human progress. Both use scenarios (called "counterfactual history" by Ferguson) to analyze how events play out. Ferguson wrote THE WAR OF THE WORLD (2006), a history of the violence that defined the 20th Century. Schwartz wrote THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW (1991), the standard text on scenario planning, and THE LONG BOOM (1999), on global prosperity in the 21st century. Both speakers regard history as highly contingent. The question is, contingent on what?
Monday, April 28th, 02008
Doors open 7:00pm, talk at 7:30pm lasting ~1.5 hours
Located at The Cowell Theater at Fort Mason Center
$10 suggested donation
We recommend you arrive early; priority seating is available for Members of Long Now.
There will be a reception at the Long Now Museum & Store following the Seminar.
For more information contact:
Community Development Director
The Seminars About Long-term Thinking were started in 02003 to build a coherent, compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking, to help nudge civilization toward Long Now's goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.